Opinion & investing ideas
vendredi 26 août 2011
C'est John James Charest qui le dit !
Companies from Japan and China's seeking new metal supplies, are considering investing in an $80 billion regional development plan in Canada’s resource-rich Quebec province, said Premier Jean Charest.
Japan’s “investment houses” are in talks about potential investments in rare earths and lithium deposits, as well as in infrastructure, Charest said in an interview yesterday in Tokyo, declining to name the companies.
Quebec, which hosts metals from gold to iron ore, is betting that a $47 billion investment in new hydro power capacity over 25 years will help lure companies from resource- poor nations. New investors would join Swiss miner Xstrata Plc. (XTA) and ArcelorMittal, world’s largest steelmaker, in developing operations.
“The Chinese are very interested,” and mostly in iron ore, Charest said. “China Investment Corp. has an office in Toronto and there is an opportunity to work with them also,” he said, referring to the nation’s sovereign wealth fund.
ArcelorMittal (MT) said May 20 it will spend C$2.1 billion ($2.1 billion) to expand operations at a Quebec iron ore complex, and Xstrata earlier this month pledged to invest a further $510 million in its nickel mine in the province.
Quebec’s regional plan, the so-called “Plan Nord”, will add 3,000 megawatts of hydro power and at least 500 megawatts of renewable capacity including wind over the 25-year time frame. The government will also help companies build roads, rail and ports to access mining projects that can only be reached by air at present.
Equity Stakes
Quebec has set aside $500 million over the next five years to purchase equity in new mining projects, Charest said. It would not seek controlling holdings, he said.
The province, which discovered deposits of rare earths about five years ago, could become a production center for the metals used in electric cars and laptops within three years, according to Charest’s estimate. Japanese electric auto makers are also looking for lithium for the batteries these cars use, he said.
“We will encourage them to invest in processing, not only extraction,” Charest said “That for us is very important and we are ready to support that.”
Japan’s biggest makers of autos, home appliances and high- technology equipment are scrambling to secure supplies of rare earth metals after China cut deliveries last year and there were diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Asia's largest economy plans to slow exports of rare earths to keep more of the metal for domestic use, according to Molycorp Inc. (MCP), a U.S. rare- earth company.
Japan is the biggest importer of rare earths while China accounts for more than 90 percent of the global exports.
Japan’s “investment houses” are in talks about potential investments in rare earths and lithium deposits, as well as in infrastructure, Charest said in an interview yesterday in Tokyo, declining to name the companies.
Quebec, which hosts metals from gold to iron ore, is betting that a $47 billion investment in new hydro power capacity over 25 years will help lure companies from resource- poor nations. New investors would join Swiss miner Xstrata Plc. (XTA) and ArcelorMittal, world’s largest steelmaker, in developing operations.
“The Chinese are very interested,” and mostly in iron ore, Charest said. “China Investment Corp. has an office in Toronto and there is an opportunity to work with them also,” he said, referring to the nation’s sovereign wealth fund.
ArcelorMittal (MT) said May 20 it will spend C$2.1 billion ($2.1 billion) to expand operations at a Quebec iron ore complex, and Xstrata earlier this month pledged to invest a further $510 million in its nickel mine in the province.
Quebec’s regional plan, the so-called “Plan Nord”, will add 3,000 megawatts of hydro power and at least 500 megawatts of renewable capacity including wind over the 25-year time frame. The government will also help companies build roads, rail and ports to access mining projects that can only be reached by air at present.
Equity Stakes
Quebec has set aside $500 million over the next five years to purchase equity in new mining projects, Charest said. It would not seek controlling holdings, he said.
The province, which discovered deposits of rare earths about five years ago, could become a production center for the metals used in electric cars and laptops within three years, according to Charest’s estimate. Japanese electric auto makers are also looking for lithium for the batteries these cars use, he said.
“We will encourage them to invest in processing, not only extraction,” Charest said “That for us is very important and we are ready to support that.”
Japan’s biggest makers of autos, home appliances and high- technology equipment are scrambling to secure supplies of rare earth metals after China cut deliveries last year and there were diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Asia's largest economy plans to slow exports of rare earths to keep more of the metal for domestic use, according to Molycorp Inc. (MCP), a U.S. rare- earth company.
Japan is the biggest importer of rare earths while China accounts for more than 90 percent of the global exports.
watch list ( de mon ami )
Le support dans le coin de 50$ est solide....
Un close en haut de 56$ briserait la dernière grosse résistance et le stock va repartir vers les sommets...et +
jeudi 25 août 2011
Berkshire Hathaway, le véhicule d'investissement de Warren Buffett, va investir 5 milliards de dollars dans Bank of America, un argent frais bienvenu pour la banque américaine.
L'annonce a immédiatement été saluée par le marché , l'action gagnait encore plus de 15% à 8,06 dollars donnant du pep au secteur bancaire, l'indice des banques américaines prenait 2,3% alors que le Dow Jones comme les deux autres principaux indices boursiers étaient en baisse.
"Cela vient combler le déficit de crédibilité qui, je le pense, existe dans l'esprit de certains actionnaires. Cela montre une nouvelle fois que leur bilan est sain. Ils avaient besoin de soutien sur les marchés et ils l'ont eu", a commenté Jon Finger, de Finger Interests.
Berkshire va également se procurer des warrants pour souscrire 700 millions d'actions BofA à un peu plus de 7,14 dollars chacune. Les warrants pourront être exercés à n'importe quel moment sur une période de dix ans.
L'investissement de Warren Buffett est similaire à celui qu'il avait fait dans Goldman Sachs au plus fort de la crise financière. Cette fois, le dividende est toutefois moins élevé.
L'annonce a immédiatement été saluée par le marché , l'action gagnait encore plus de 15% à 8,06 dollars donnant du pep au secteur bancaire, l'indice des banques américaines prenait 2,3% alors que le Dow Jones comme les deux autres principaux indices boursiers étaient en baisse.
"Cela vient combler le déficit de crédibilité qui, je le pense, existe dans l'esprit de certains actionnaires. Cela montre une nouvelle fois que leur bilan est sain. Ils avaient besoin de soutien sur les marchés et ils l'ont eu", a commenté Jon Finger, de Finger Interests.
Berkshire va également se procurer des warrants pour souscrire 700 millions d'actions BofA à un peu plus de 7,14 dollars chacune. Les warrants pourront être exercés à n'importe quel moment sur une période de dix ans.
L'investissement de Warren Buffett est similaire à celui qu'il avait fait dans Goldman Sachs au plus fort de la crise financière. Cette fois, le dividende est toutefois moins élevé.
Chinoiseries
CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO, HKG: 0883), China's biggest offshore oil producer, said its 1H net profit jumped 51.4% year on year to ¥39.34 billion, fuelled by higher international oil prices and successful cost control. It also said it plans to cut this year's output of oil equivalent by 6.5% to 6.7% to between 341 million and 365 million barrels in the wake of the crude oil spills in Dalian, Liaoning province.
China Unicom Ltd (NYSE: CHU, SHA: 600050, HKG: 0762) posted ¥101.39 billion in revenues and ¥2.64 billion in net profits for 1H 2011, up 22.9% and down 5.5% respectively from the same period a year ago. A 19.9% increase in sales costs that amounted to ¥13.6 billion over the period was blamed for the decline in net profit.
China Unicom Ltd (NYSE: CHU, SHA: 600050, HKG: 0762) posted ¥101.39 billion in revenues and ¥2.64 billion in net profits for 1H 2011, up 22.9% and down 5.5% respectively from the same period a year ago. A 19.9% increase in sales costs that amounted to ¥13.6 billion over the period was blamed for the decline in net profit.
I bought AAPL
Apple is going to be fine. Tim Cook is not Steve Jobs, but he is a talented, highly respected executive who has been running Apple’s day-to-day operations for years. And Cook is not running the show alone. Apple has a deep bench, including superstars like industrial designer Jonathan Ive, marketing guru Phil Schiller and iPhone software specialist Scott Forstall. While some investors would have you believe that Steve Jobs single-handedly grew Apple up from the ground, the truth is that the company is now a highly polished product creation machine. And there are more miracles on the way.
The next-generation iPhone, the iPad 3, new Macs, potentially an amazing new HQ in Cupertino and maybe even Apple-branded televisions are on the way, no doubt along with other things that so far haven’t leaked. Think Apple is done changing the world? Think different.
Seriously: Apple will be just fine. And if the stock should happen to sell off here – the shares were down about 5% in late trading Wednesday – investors would be well advised to take advantage of what could be a tremendous buying opportunity. The company has $76 billion in cash; back that out from its market cap at Wednesday’s close and the stock is trading at just over 2x estimated revenues for FY 2012. The stock is cheap, and Apple will be fine.
Seriously: Apple will be just fine. And if the stock should happen to sell off here – the shares were down about 5% in late trading Wednesday – investors would be well advised to take advantage of what could be a tremendous buying opportunity. The company has $76 billion in cash; back that out from its market cap at Wednesday’s close and the stock is trading at just over 2x estimated revenues for FY 2012. The stock is cheap, and Apple will be fine.
mercredi 24 août 2011
Écran de 4 pouces bord à bord, boîtier plus fin, APN de 8 mégapixels capable d’enregistrer du 1080p, caméra Facetime HD en façade.
Initialement attendu en septembre, le nouvel iPhone pourrait finalement être lancé par Apple seulement à la mi-octobre, affirme le Wall Street Journal. Aux Etats-Unis, il devrait être distribué par un troisième opérateur de téléphonie mobile, Sprint Nextel, qui s'ajouterait à AT&T et Verizon.
Si l'on se fie aux bruits qui courent depuis plusieurs mois sur les sites high tech, l'iPhone 5 devrait être équipé d'un appareil photo de plus grande résolution et d'un processeur plus rapide. Il tournera sous iOS 5, la nouvelle version du système d'exploitation d'Apple, dévoilée en juin. Plus fin et plus léger que la précédente version, il conserverait le même design.
Apple se préparerait aussi à lancer dans les prochaines semaines une version moins chère de l'iPhone 4, équipée d'une mémoire de 8 giga octets, contre 16 ou 32 actuellement. Ce modèle pourrait, selon les analystes, séduire les consommateurs des pays émergents.
- 4%
Gold traders decided to book profits after prices Tuesday pushed to a fresh all-time record high of $1,917.90 an ounce...
Anthologie
Fannie Mae fut créée en vue d'étendre l'offre d'unités de logement à prix économiques et d'acheminer le capital global vers les communautés locales, afin de desservir le marché de l'immobilier américain.
Fannie Mae est sous contrat avec le gouvernement fédéral et opère sur le marché immobilier secondaire des hypothèques secondaires des États-Unis afin d'améliorer la liquidité du marché des hypothèques immobilières en fournissant des fonds aux banquiers des hypothèques et autres prêteurs, afin que ceux-ci puissent prêter aux personnes désireuses d'acheter un logement. Notre mission est d'assister ceux qui logent les Américains.
BAC à recyclage
La dernière rumeur parle que JP MORGAN va mettre la main sur BAC.
Aucune surprise...le stock a fini à son bas de l'année.....et à son niveau de Mars 2009.
There is a rumor circulated on Wall St. that JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) will take over Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) within the week. The government will support the deal with a $100 billion investment in preferred shares issued by the combined entity. Alternatively, the government may guarantee the value of a large pool of Bank of America assets. The word is that Treasury Secretary Geithner has discussed the transaction with JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon.The “merger” would completely destroy the value of BAC’s common shares.
lundi 22 août 2011
Un signe des temps...
Dans mes 16 ans de boursicotage j'ai vu beaucoup de situations bizarres. L'une d'entre elle reviens de temps en temps....le " m'en câlisse dl'a bourse "...autrement dit quelle que soit la nouvelle elle n'aura aucun effet sur le stock....Un traitement pour le cancer de classe mondial approuvé FDA = patate ! Mettez le code SGEN sur une liste de surveillance (long).....peut-être un "sleeping giant" ici.....http://www.seagen.com/
Très bon texte
There is an old rule of thumb from biotech investors and traders… SELL FDA APPROVALS. This is very counter-intuitive on the surface but we wanted to explain in more detail why this is the case here. Today marks the first drug approval from Seattle Genetics Inc for its Adcetris (brentuximab), which also happens to be the first approval of a new drug to treat Hodgkin lymphoma in over 30 years.
The drug treats a less common form of the cancer known called systemic ALCL (anaplastic large cell lymphoma). The ‘more rare’ and ‘rarer’ wording is the key here. Also, the figure for the treatment used is now being set at $13,500.00. It is going to take many treatments before the company recaptures what was called more than $500 million in R&D expenses per CNBC data during a company interview this morning.
Seattle Genetics is apparently going to make the drug, again its first commercially available drug, available next week. The long and short of this is that brentuximab combines an antibody to target the cancer along with the effects of chemotherapy.
We looked for analyst opinion and Bloomberg showed an RBC comment noting that a conservative estimates is that the drug may reach $200 million in two years.
The drug treats a less common form of the cancer known called systemic ALCL (anaplastic large cell lymphoma). The ‘more rare’ and ‘rarer’ wording is the key here. Also, the figure for the treatment used is now being set at $13,500.00. It is going to take many treatments before the company recaptures what was called more than $500 million in R&D expenses per CNBC data during a company interview this morning.
Seattle Genetics is apparently going to make the drug, again its first commercially available drug, available next week. The long and short of this is that brentuximab combines an antibody to target the cancer along with the effects of chemotherapy.
We looked for analyst opinion and Bloomberg showed an RBC comment noting that a conservative estimates is that the drug may reach $200 million in two years.
RBC did note that it could be larger. Canaccord Genuity sent us some data that was much more cautious and it maintained a “Sell” rating and $10 target.
What is going to drive the sentiment here is rather simple… Dollars in versus dollars out against valuations. The $500 million price tag and the $1.7 billion market capitalization play a part for a drug that could be a $200 million a year drug. If the drug generates more in sales, then the caution on valuation is going to be less warranted.
What is going to drive the sentiment here is rather simple… Dollars in versus dollars out against valuations. The $500 million price tag and the $1.7 billion market capitalization play a part for a drug that could be a $200 million a year drug. If the drug generates more in sales, then the caution on valuation is going to be less warranted.
Still, this values the one-product company at close to 8.5-times sales and the straight-line math puts a 2-year or 3-year cost recapture period in place. Then will come the real profits.
The good news is that Seattle Genetics has more than $400 million in cash and liquidity on the books. That will bolster the company for a while. Before the effects of this approval, which was mostly expected, Thomson Reuters had estimates of $55.31 million for 2011 sales and $151.76 million for 2012 sales.
In the case of a biotech, we cannot back out a penny of the cash to derive a raw value for the company. The cash burn and cash cushion is just too deeply required by the investment community to discount the cash from the market capitalization analysis.
If the drug generates even a 50% upside to the RBC target and manages $300 million after a couple or few years on the market without any news of prohibitive side-effects (an unsafe automatic assumption) then the company as it stands today for commercialized product will trade at more than 5-times annual peak sales and that is before the cost recapture time.
While no new treatment has been approved in more than 30 years for this indication, imagine what happens if another drug approval is granted or even if another drug approval looks possible. The forward value comes under fire.
Here is what else the company has in its pipeline.
The good news is that Seattle Genetics has more than $400 million in cash and liquidity on the books. That will bolster the company for a while. Before the effects of this approval, which was mostly expected, Thomson Reuters had estimates of $55.31 million for 2011 sales and $151.76 million for 2012 sales.
In the case of a biotech, we cannot back out a penny of the cash to derive a raw value for the company. The cash burn and cash cushion is just too deeply required by the investment community to discount the cash from the market capitalization analysis.
If the drug generates even a 50% upside to the RBC target and manages $300 million after a couple or few years on the market without any news of prohibitive side-effects (an unsafe automatic assumption) then the company as it stands today for commercialized product will trade at more than 5-times annual peak sales and that is before the cost recapture time.
While no new treatment has been approved in more than 30 years for this indication, imagine what happens if another drug approval is granted or even if another drug approval looks possible. The forward value comes under fire.
Here is what else the company has in its pipeline.
Brentuximab has more Phase I to Phase III trials underway for broader aspects in Hodgkin Lymphoma. More is a s follows:
SGN-75 for Renal cell carcinoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma is in Phase I;
ASG-5ME for Pancreatic and for Prostate cancers is in Phase I;
ASG-22ME for Solid tumors is in Phase I;
SGN-19A for CD19+ hematologic malignancies is in pre-clinical studies,
The company shows that 11 clinical-stage ADC programs in hematologic malignancies and solid tumors are in pre-clinical to Phase II studies under ADC Collaboration.
Now you know why we refuse to value the cash and liquidity as a discounting mechanism against the market capitalization. That cash may all be spoken for in current R&D and clinical studies as far as monetary commitments. The good news is that this will begin to assure much-needed revenues for the company.
Before you consider that this is a bash against Seattle Genetics, it is not. The problem that exists is that there is only so much a single drug approval can do for the total value of a company. Shares were up after the news initially, but at 1:00 PM EST the stock is down about 2% and around the $14.70 level. The 52-week trading range is $11.36 to $21.41.
The old trading adage is “buy the rumor and sell the news.” This was mostly an expected outcome for approval, so investors and traders are currently following the textbook trade. No more, no less.
SGN-75 for Renal cell carcinoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma is in Phase I;
ASG-5ME for Pancreatic and for Prostate cancers is in Phase I;
ASG-22ME for Solid tumors is in Phase I;
SGN-19A for CD19+ hematologic malignancies is in pre-clinical studies,
The company shows that 11 clinical-stage ADC programs in hematologic malignancies and solid tumors are in pre-clinical to Phase II studies under ADC Collaboration.
Now you know why we refuse to value the cash and liquidity as a discounting mechanism against the market capitalization. That cash may all be spoken for in current R&D and clinical studies as far as monetary commitments. The good news is that this will begin to assure much-needed revenues for the company.
Before you consider that this is a bash against Seattle Genetics, it is not. The problem that exists is that there is only so much a single drug approval can do for the total value of a company. Shares were up after the news initially, but at 1:00 PM EST the stock is down about 2% and around the $14.70 level. The 52-week trading range is $11.36 to $21.41.
The old trading adage is “buy the rumor and sell the news.” This was mostly an expected outcome for approval, so investors and traders are currently following the textbook trade. No more, no less.
...des pauvres partout !
J'ai une confiance sans limite dans les pauvres...chaque année il y en a de plus en plus et malgré les problèmes politiques et financiers sur la planète , ils doivent se nourrir comme tout le monde.* Apollo management a la même vision que moi et semble intéressé a acheter 99 cents only stores (NDN.nyse) et la rumeur de ce matin parle de 19.10$ l'action. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Management
* ironie
...ça me donne le goût de remettre du cash dans DOL.to
La bourse est pourrie ? Je place mon fric dans une Ferrari !
Les turbulences sur les marchés financiers ne coupent pas l'appétit des riches investisseurs pour les voitures de collection.
Une Ferrari 250 Testa Rossa de 1957 vient d'être adjugée à 16,4 millions de dollars, battant ainsi le record mondial d'enchères.
La 250 Testa Rossa est une voiture de course particulièrement recherchée. Le précédent record était d'ailleurs détenu par un modèle similaire, vendu 12,4 millions de dollars en 2009. Le châssis 0666TR, présenté samedi à Pebble Beach par la maison américaine Gooding & Company, était encore plus exclusif : c'était le premier de la série.
Ce week-end a été marqué par d'autres enchères record. RM Auctions a ainsi vendu 9,7 millions de dollars une Mercedes-Benz 540 K Spezial Roadster de 1937. Soit deux fois plus que son estimation. Une somme jamais atteinte pour une voiture de cette marque. De son côté, une Porsche 911 de 1970, ayant appartenu à Steve McQueen, est partie pour 1,4 million de dollars. Du jamais vu pour ce modèle.
La 250 Testa Rossa est une voiture de course particulièrement recherchée. Le précédent record était d'ailleurs détenu par un modèle similaire, vendu 12,4 millions de dollars en 2009. Le châssis 0666TR, présenté samedi à Pebble Beach par la maison américaine Gooding & Company, était encore plus exclusif : c'était le premier de la série.
Ce week-end a été marqué par d'autres enchères record. RM Auctions a ainsi vendu 9,7 millions de dollars une Mercedes-Benz 540 K Spezial Roadster de 1937. Soit deux fois plus que son estimation. Une somme jamais atteinte pour une voiture de cette marque. De son côté, une Porsche 911 de 1970, ayant appartenu à Steve McQueen, est partie pour 1,4 million de dollars. Du jamais vu pour ce modèle.
Apple may be in the midst of the development of a 4G iPhone. It is not clear when the product will be released, but if it is in the next few months, Apple has a chance to dominate the new, ultra-fast wireless market.
Apple observers have had strong reason to be concerned about Apple’s long-term 4G plans. Most experts believe that the new iPhone 5, to be introduced next month, will only run on 3G networks, which is the current standard. But that standard has begun to change quickly. Large carriers Sprint-Nextel (NYSE: S), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) have recently promoted 4G capacity more than any single handset. This is a departure, at least for AT&T and Verizon, which used the iPhone as their primary promotion to get new customers.
Cellular carriers, both inside the U.S. and outside, hope that 4G speed will prompt more costumers to download video and other large data files. This, in turn, will allow the carriers to charge many customers more money for those downloads. These same companies hope that they can get more money from consumers for basic 4G service than they have for 3G service.
Apple has no product in place to compete with 4G-enabled handsets from large smartphone manufacturers, which include Samsung and fast-growing HTC. These firms have begun to take market share, and Apple needs to ensure that they do not take more.
Apple’s current 3G-enabled products may also have grown old, at least as far as consumers are concerned. Applications like video work much better on fast networks, which makes products that compete with the iPhone more attractive to the large number of people who have or will soon adopt 4G service.
Apple observers have had strong reason to be concerned about Apple’s long-term 4G plans. Most experts believe that the new iPhone 5, to be introduced next month, will only run on 3G networks, which is the current standard. But that standard has begun to change quickly. Large carriers Sprint-Nextel (NYSE: S), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) have recently promoted 4G capacity more than any single handset. This is a departure, at least for AT&T and Verizon, which used the iPhone as their primary promotion to get new customers.
Cellular carriers, both inside the U.S. and outside, hope that 4G speed will prompt more costumers to download video and other large data files. This, in turn, will allow the carriers to charge many customers more money for those downloads. These same companies hope that they can get more money from consumers for basic 4G service than they have for 3G service.
Apple has no product in place to compete with 4G-enabled handsets from large smartphone manufacturers, which include Samsung and fast-growing HTC. These firms have begun to take market share, and Apple needs to ensure that they do not take more.
Apple’s current 3G-enabled products may also have grown old, at least as far as consumers are concerned. Applications like video work much better on fast networks, which makes products that compete with the iPhone more attractive to the large number of people who have or will soon adopt 4G service.
dimanche 21 août 2011
Danone et Nestlé font figure de favoris pour l'activité de préparations pour nourrissons de Wyeth, filiale de Pfizer, évaluée à quelque dix milliards de dollars .
L'Asie représente 45% du marché mondial de laits infantiles, puisqu'il y naît plus de la moitié des bébés de la planète. La Chine assure à elle seule un cinquième des ventes mondiales.
Danone et Nestlé estiment à près de 10% la croissance du marché des laits infantiles. Wyeth, avec sa marque de lait SMA, leur permettrait donc d'accélérer leur croissance sur des marchés comme l'Asie et l'Amérique latine.
Danone et Nestlé estiment à près de 10% la croissance du marché des laits infantiles. Wyeth, avec sa marque de lait SMA, leur permettrait donc d'accélérer leur croissance sur des marchés comme l'Asie et l'Amérique latine.
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